"Bad luck is easy to identify when you fail and good luck is easy to ignore when you succeed."
This quote from Morgan Housel encapsulates a vital but often overlooked aspect of project delivery: the role of luck. In a world where we're quick to assign credit or blame to skills, strategies, and decisions, it's worth taking a moment to consider how luck can significantly impact the outcome of a project.
The double-edged sword of luck
When things go wrong
When a project fails, it's easy to blame poor management, inadequate resources, or ineffective team members. While these may be valid concerns, we sometimes underestimate external factors—market conditions, unexpected competition, or even a sudden departure of a key team member—that are largely out of our control.
When things go right
Conversely, when a project is successful, we attribute it to excellent management, robust planning, and team effort. But how often do we acknowledge favourable circumstances that contributed to that success? Perhaps you launched a product just when the market was ripe, or a competitor made a critical mistake that diverted customers to your doorstep.
Resilience Over Prediction
Rather than attempting to predict every potential problem, focus on building a project culture that can adapt quickly when issues arise.
Decision-making Autonomy
Empower team members to make quick decisions in new, unpredictable situations. The conventional hierarchical approach often results in delays that can exacerbate problems.
The danger of ignoring luck
Ignoring the role of luck is not just an oversight; it can be downright dangerous for several reasons:
Overconfidence
If you attribute all your successes to your skills and strategies, you risk becoming overconfident, making you less cautious in your future endeavours.
Inadequate Preparation
If you fail to recognise the role of luck, you may not prepare adequately for contingencies in future projects, underestimating the unpredictable elements that could come into play.
Team Morale
Conversely, blaming the team or yourself entirely for failures can be a morale killer. Recognising the role of bad luck can take some of the undue burden off your team's shoulders.
How to mitigate the impact of bad luck
Diversification
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversifying projects can offset the impact of bad luck in one area with good luck in another.
Emotional Intelligence
Be prepared emotionally for both good and bad outcomes. Keeping a balanced perspective can help you navigate through tough times and keep you grounded in moments of success.
Learning & Adapting
Whether good or bad luck, each project provides learning opportunities. Use these insights for better planning and decision-making in future projects.
Risk Assessment
Conduct thorough risk assessments that consider not just internal factors but also unpredictable external elements. Prepare contingency plans to handle worst-case scenarios.
Luck plays an underrated yet critical role in the outcome of projects. Acknowledging its impact can make you more humble in your successes and more compassionate in your failures. By planning thoroughly, diversifying risks, and maintaining emotional balance, you can better prepare for the unpredictable and volatile factors that lie ahead in any project.
