Risk management and mitigation take centre stage as key skills in project management. Conventional wisdom tells us that identifying, analysing, and mitigating risks are critical to a project's success. While it's hard to argue against being prepared, one can't help but ponder the limitations of conventional risk management approaches. The sociologist Scott Sagan's observation—"things that never happened before, happen all the time"—raises some intriguing questions about how we approach risk in project management.
The Fallacy of Predictability
Risk management is based on the idea that we can forecast potential problems and plan accordingly. However, Sagan's quote reminds us that the unexpected, by its very nature, can't always be anticipated. We can plan for known risks - budget overruns, delays, scope creep, etc. - but what about the risks we can't predict? The pandemic taught us that 'black swan' events - things that are extremely rare but have catastrophic consequences - can and do happen.
The Resource Dilemma
Traditional risk management often requires extensive resources—both manpower and time. Companies spend millions on consultants, software, and risk management training. Yet, the return on this investment isn't always clear, particularly when considering unforeseeable events. Could those resources be better spent on other aspects of the project, such as innovation, quality assurance, or stakeholder engagement?
Resilience Over Prediction
Rather than attempting to predict every potential problem, focus on building a project culture that can adapt quickly when issues arise.
Decision-making Autonomy
Empower team members to make quick decisions in new, unpredictable situations. The conventional hierarchical approach often results in delays that can exacerbate problems.
The Illusion of Control
One of the psychological comforts of risk management is the sense of control it provides. The meticulous planning creates an illusion that we have tamed the chaos inherent in any project. But the events "that never happened before" aren't just statistical outliers; they are reminders of the complexity and unpredictability of the real world. Thus, can we ever claim to have risks truly 'managed'?
So, what's the alternative? Here are some suggestions toward a more adaptive approach:
Adaptive Planning
Use an adaptive, agile approach instead of committing enormous resources to exhaustive risk management plans. Make plans but accept that they may need to change.
Resilience Over Prediction
Rather than attempting to predict every potential problem, focus on building a project culture that can adapt quickly when issues arise.
Decision-making Autonomy
Empower team members to make quick decisions in new, unpredictable situations. The conventional hierarchical approach often results in delays that can exacerbate problems.
In conclusion, a balanced, flexible approach to project management that accounts for the unpredictability of our world may be more effective in the long run. While risk management has its merits, it's essential to question its conventional wisdom. Accept that some things can't be predicted and see failures as learning opportunities rather than catastrophes. This approach will help you adapt to the "things that never happened before" when they inevitably occur.
